全球失衡下的中国双顺差之谜

Since the early 1990s，An interesting phenomenon has emerged from Chinese Balance of Payments Sheet：Dual-surplus of current account and capital account，which was come from trade surplus and FDI surplus respectively.At the same time，the global imbalance（American current account deficits）also has been maintaining a generation.Why the “classical international auto-adjusted mechanism”was failure to function？Except the international currency system’s inherent causation，it dues to the interaction between the global manufacture’s transfers driven by the optimum investment decision of firms and a country’s domestic fundamentals and policies.Imbalance thus became a long-run phenomenon，it can not been solved in a short time.We also can not found the solution in early Macroeconomic theories of international payments，because they gave little attentions to FDI factor.This book is formed from my postdoctoral dissertation.Based on the FDI-trade-finance nexus，placing the “China Dual-surplus”under Global imbalance，I tried to give a new theoretic explanation.First，I developed a three-area FDI-trade nexus model，discussing six investment systems and their macro-effects on international payments，and found that as a result of “North-South”FDI and trade behaviors，the global imbalance—the north motherland’s trade（current account）deficits and the south（china）host country’s trade surplus，are “endogenic”.Then，I established an intertemporal model of current account，which considered the factors of FDI，the divided two sub-economy of domestic capital section and foreign capital section under the government’s control，and gained the stable state condition of current account balance.Next，the book analyzed the external macro-determinants（push force）and the internal policy’s cause（pull force）of China’s Dual-surplus，discussing the behaviors of domestic capital part，foreign capital part and the government part and their effects on international payments respectively.Last，I gave some policy suggestions to solve the imbalance.In which，transiting some of the “Neomercantile System”measures，reducing the growth rate of government saving and expenses，carrying out the balanced economic growth，are the most important ways.Key Words：China BOP Dual-surplus；Global Imbalance；FDI-trade-Finance Nexus；International Payments；Intertemporal Approach；Neomercantilism

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