能源安全与中美关系：竞争·冲突·合作

As the global energy market undergoes profound changes and international oil price stays at a record high，energy security is playing an increasingly important role in conditioning Sino-US relations，with bilateral frictions and conflicts over some energy-related regional issues continuing to exacerbate.The fact that a rising China is establishing itself as a major global player in the world energy market as well as in the global energy geo-political arena has been exerting considerable impact on the China-US relationship and global energy security at large.What has been observed demonstrates that energy security，as a new cause for conflicts，has apparently presented itself from the cyclic crises that characterize Sino-US relations.Energy Security has already rendered and will continue to render the complicated and unpredictable Sino-US relations even more so.Chiefly relevant to oil and gas，China's energy security has arisen from the structural deficiency of increasing demand and decreasing supply of clean energy.To ensure its energy security，China has，over the years，conducted a series of diplomatic maneuvers to seek overseas oil and gas in order to diversify its sources of energy.China's active energy diplomacy，as embodied by frequent visits to oil-rich developing countries by top Chinese leaders，converges around its energy strategy of“going out”，which has called world-wide attention and triggered hot debates among Western politicians and academics.Optimists hold that China's pursuit of energy security will help to get China more immersed in the international community，thus obliging China to shoulder greater responsibility in terms of its energy policy and international conduct.Other pessimist analysts argue that China's increasing demand for energy will pose a threat to the United States，a consumer power as thirsty for energy as China，and logically，competition and confrontation between the two countries over scarce energy resources are inevitable.Taking into account that energy security is an overarching and the most recent issue highly likely to effect Sino-US relations and that little systematic research has been made into it，this dissertation attempts to draw up a comprehensive analysis of how the issue of energy security will impact the stable development of Sino-US relations and the international energy security as a whole by examining the likelihood for China and the United States to run into conflicts over energy security，the differences and divergences that might prop up with regard to the formulation of energy security policies and related diplomatic measures on the part of both countries，the characteristic features of Sino-US energy relationship and the possibility for China and the United States to wage energy cooperation.Therefore，a study on this issue is of great academic value and immediate significance.The book analyses the many aspects concerning Sino-US energy relationship from a neutral and unbiased perspective so as to come up with a subjective conclusion.The book consists of an introduction and five parts.The Introduction raises the subject matter at issue，expounds its value for research，illustrates the present state of research into this subject at national and international levels，introduces differing views and conclusions on this issue at home and abroad and studies and compares the merits and demerits of these views and conclusions.Throughout the dissertation，energy security theory is given a salient position.Part One deals with China's energy security policies.The author first analyses the causes for China's energy insecurity and precedes to，applying the Western analytic methodology，look at the relationship between China's energy security perceptions and the actual formulation of its energy policies and detects the deficiency and flaws that exist with the Chinese energy security system.The conclusion is that China's energy security policies can be described as“incomprehensive”as well as“incomplete”，which，as a result，can not be defined as“intended”or“provocative”against the United States.Part Two made up of with chapters two，three and four，serves as a case study in which the strategic importance of energy resources in the Middle East，Africa and the Western Hemisphere to China's energy security and that of the United States and the impact of China's pursuit of energy in these regions on America's energy，economic and strategic interest are fully investigated.The investigations find that China's energy relationship with the aforementioned countries and regions typically is one of classic symbiotic relationships and is the logical development of energy interdependence in economic terms.Yet，in this process，China's pursuit of energy interest in these regions has caused competition with the United States and eventually posed a sort of threat to Washington's strategic goals and national interest，as is show-cased by the declining US influence both politically and diplomatically on such issues as Iran and the Sudan，hence giving rise to energy-related geopolitical conflicts between China and the US.Part Three gives an evaluation of the US energy security policies by outlining the historic development of the US energy security policy with a focus on the energy security policy of the Bush Administration.Emphasis is placed on the factors that regulate policy-making and models policy-making follow.The findings are that the US energy policy can be characterized as disaggregated and incoherent；that the US energy security policy has some positive effects on the global energy security but these effects can not be overrated；that the US energy security policy is generally compatible with but specifically contradictory to its overall foreign policy；that such incomplete compatibility is likely to cast some shadow on China's energy security interest in the long term；and that as a result，the competition and confrontation between China and the US over global energy security have a reason to get more intense.Part Four brings up a definition of the nature of Sino-US energy relationship.The definition is made on the basis of the structural competition of the market，energy security outlook，and the contradictions of each other's energy policies，geo-political frictions and limited bilateral energy cooperation.The definition goes that the nature of the Sino-US energy relationship is competitive although China's energy security policy has not yet posed a real threat to America's major part of national interest.This competition，though indirect and partial at the moment，sees a trend of going direct and full in the future.Under the condition where there is a lack of mutual political trust and a security cooperation mechanism，this trend could ignite more conflicts between the two countries over energy in years to come.Part Five makes prospective analyses by examining the possibility for both sides to run into larger-scale conflicts over energy，reviewing the energy policies of either of the countries，predicting possible readjustment of each other's energy-related foreign policy and exploring ways of formulating measures and creating mechanisms for bilateral energy cooperation.The analyses have come to the conclusion that despite the fact that Sino-US energy interaction is by no means a zero-sum game，the possibility for either side to readjust its energy security policy and energy-related foreign policy to adapt to the other side can be eliminated and that one can not be optimistic about the future of Sino-US energy cooperation because the difficulty for such cooperation is greater than expected.Yet，there seems to be a common ground for both sides to believe that cooperation better serves the interest of all than confrontation over energy，so strategists of both sides are expected to use their superb political wisdom and ability to work out effective measures and mechanisms to lead the bilateral energy cooperation to a smooth and stable road.Both China and the United States are the two biggest players on the international energy markets and will retain their potions as the worlds’largest oil importers far into the future.Therefore，political wisdom，institutional creation，compromise，transcendence of oil and political trust are the fundamentals needed to boost bilateral energy cooperation and build up substantial cooperation mechanisms.Once all the above are put in place as policy focus and policy objectives，they will，most probably，do good to the energy security interest of both countries and the international energy security as a whole and ultimately to the stable development of Sino-US relations.

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